Ten-year forecast predicts increase in transmission tariffs from 2027 onwards

The forecast gives grid users more long-term insight, a better perspective for action and the possibility to make strategic decisions (investment decisions) at an earlier stage. In addition, the forecast provides starting points for future discussions on the financing of socially necessary investments in the electricity grids.

The acceleration of the energy transition and the investments required for it are putting pressure on the affordability of the energy system. Here it is important to engage in a discussion about the affordability of the overall energy costs, as decisions about the production mix and the way in which the industry becomes more sustainable have a strong impact on both the costs of TenneT's electrical infrastructure and the overall bill of the users. The motto is therefore to take a broad look at the affordability of energy costs, as cost savings in one part of the tariff system can lead to higher costs in other parts.   

In the past, the tariff system for electricity costs worked well, but the energy transition requires new considerations. Under the current system, transmission costs for users will continue to rise in the future. To ensure the affordability of electricity in the future, an interdepartemental policy study was launched by four ministries. This study, together with Cultural Planning Agency (CPB) and Environmental Planning Agency (PBL), examines the current system of financing electricity infrastructure. TenneT and the regional grid operators will contribute their technical and financial expertise if requested. The ten-year tariff forecast provides relevant data and results.

Manon van Beek, CEO TenneT:

“From discussions with market participants, we know that, apart from the cost of electricity itself, the transmission tariffs for electricity are an important factor in the assessment of business cases. Companies and customers need fact-based forecasts to make future decisions. This 10-year forecast can help.”

Tariffs are expected to increase by 4.7% (HS) and 4.3% (EHS) per year from current price levels (with inflation of 6.6-6.9%). The increase in underlying costs is higher but mitigated by expected volume growth due to the electrification of industry, transport and households. Following this forecast, the conversation can turn to the impact of existing tariff structures on different users, such as industrial parties, SMEs, households and producers.

Manon van Beek:

“Based on the 'user pays' principle, we are looking for ways to ensure affordability, for example by ensuring that those who benefit from the offshore grid contribute to it. Part of the electricity is exported abroad via this offshore grid. So, we are actively looking at ways to mitigate rising tariffs. These include European subsidies for the offshore grid, market-based financing, cross-border cost sharing or the possibility of including the costs in the electricity price.”  

The 10-year forecast is also truly a forecast with caveats. The forecast depends on various assumptions, such as future procurement results, the development of external parameters such as inflation, the cost of capital and the extent of electrification in the Netherlands. The sensitivity to these assumptions has been assessed as far as possible. These developments can have both positive and negative effects on the development of tariffs. The most important factor is the level of electrification. If large-scale electrification is delayed, there will be fewer grid users over which to spread the total costs. In this case, transmission tariffs could be significantly higher. More information on the forecast can be found in this document.